How to Know If a Stock is Worth Buying

Understanding Discount Price, Latest Price, and Issuance Type

Before buying a stock, it’s crucial to understand some basic terms:

  • Discount Price:
    • This is the price offered during a new issuance or private placement, often at a discount to the market price to attract investors.
    • It’s not always a “deal” — it reflects the company’s strategy and investor demand.
  • Latest Price:
    • The current market price of the stock on the JSE.
    • Reflects what buyers and sellers are currently willing to pay.
  • Issuance Type:
    • Public Offering: Available to all investors, usually through brokers.
    • Private Placement: Offered to select investors (e.g., institutions or high-net-worth individuals).
    • Rights Issue: Offered to existing shareholders, often to raise capital.

Understanding these terms helps you compare the discount price to the latest market price — a key step in evaluating a stock’s attractiveness.


Analyzing the Company’s Fundamentals

A stock’s price is ultimately driven by the company’s financial health and growth prospects. Here’s what to look at:

  • Earnings and Revenue:
    • Is the company profitable? Are its revenues growing consistently?
  • Industry Position:
    • Is it a market leader or a challenger?
    • How competitive is the industry?
  • Management Team:
    • Does the company have experienced, trustworthy leaders?
  • Economic Environment:
    • How do factors like exchange rates, commodity prices, and local regulations impact the company?

Reading annual reports, financial statements, and industry news will give you insights into these fundamentals.


Technical Analysis: Reading Stock Trends

Besides fundamentals, technical analysis helps you understand how a stock’s price has been behaving recently:

  • Moving Averages:
    • Simple Moving Average (SMA) or Exponential Moving Average (EMA) shows price trends over time.
  • Volume:
    • Is trading volume increasing or decreasing? High volume often signals investor interest.
  • Support and Resistance Levels:
    • Historical price levels where a stock tends to bounce back (support) or struggle to move past (resistance).

In South Africa’s market, stocks can sometimes be more volatile than in developed markets, making technical analysis especially useful for timing your trades.


Risk Assessment and Return Expectations

Every investment carries risks. Before buying:

  • Risk Tolerance:
    • Are you comfortable with short-term price swings?
  • Diversification:
    • Avoid putting all your money into one stock. Spread investments across sectors.
  • Expected Return:
    • Does the potential upside justify the risk?
  • Dividend Policy:
    • Some South African stocks offer dividends; consider these as part of your total return.

Putting It All Together

Here’s a quick checklist before buying a stock:

✅ Is the latest price attractive compared to the discount price or past prices?
✅ Does the company have strong fundamentals (profitability, growth, industry position)?
✅ What do technical indicators say about timing?
✅ Does the investment align with your risk profile?
✅ Is your portfolio balanced to manage overall risk?


Common Questions from Investors

Q: Should I always buy at a discount price?
A: Not necessarily. A discount price might reflect risk or low demand. Compare it with the market price and company fundamentals.

Q: What if the stock price is dropping?
A: Analyze whether it’s due to short-term market noise or serious company issues. Sometimes, price dips create buying opportunities, but caution is key.Q: How do I know if a company’s management is reliable?
A: Look at their track record in delivering growth and shareholder value. Review past financial performance and news reports.